A recent study analyzing 10 years of data on how assistant principals in Texas were (or weren't) promoted may shed light on why the racial and gender breakdowns of K–12 public school principals overall don't match up with the demographics of the U.S. teaching force.
Researchers Lauren Bailes and Susan Guthery tracked the promotion patterns of 4,689 assistant principals in Texas over a period of 10 years and assessed the time to promotion to the principalship of this sample. They probed whether any patterns of promotion by racial or gender characteristic surfaced. They found that—holding education, experience, school level, and school characteristics constant—Black assistant principals were less likely to be promoted, and waited longer for advancement, than white APs.
Patterns implying barriers for women APs seeking to be principal of a school also surfaced. Female assistant principals were seven percent less likely than male ones to be promoted, at least at the high school level. When female AP's were promoted, it was after longer AP service; it took women of all races in this sample of Texas school leaders more than two-thirds of a year longer than men in the sample to be promoted to the principalship.
Source: Bailes, L., & Guthery, S. (2020, June 8). Held down and held back: Systematically delayed principal promotion by race and gender. AERA Open.